Question

Will China ban all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, before 2030?

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Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction2% (1% - 4.4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Trump Tariffs: How Will U.S. Consumers be Hit by China Restrictions?

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

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Raw Story•Feb 15, 2025

China has reacted in kind to Trump’s tariffs, but a deal may still emerge

Guardian•Feb 15, 2025

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China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030? → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Comments

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Trump Tariffs: How Will U.S. Consumers be Hit by China Restrictions?

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Where things stand in China-U.S. trade tensions

Raw Story•Feb 15, 2025

China has reacted in kind to Trump’s tariffs, but a deal may still emerge

Guardian•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch