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Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

11 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

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Year		My Prediction		Me
2035	43%

2030	29%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Council on Foreign Relations

People's Liberation Army Air Force

Taiwan

United States

Beijing

Exclusive economic zone

Japan

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Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China ban all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, before 2030?

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Council on Foreign Relations

People's Liberation Army Air Force

Taiwan

United States

Beijing

Exclusive economic zone

Japan

Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report

FOX News•Nov 12, 2024

Experts say Trump's threatened China tariffs could actually help Beijing weather an economic storm

CBS•Nov 12, 2024

Taiwan's China-Skeptic President To Visit US Military Hubs: Report

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%