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Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

11 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2035	38%

2030	22%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Council on Foreign Relations

People's Liberation Army Air Force

Taiwan

United States

Beijing

Exclusive economic zone

Japan

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Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

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Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

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Will China ban all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, before 2030?

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Council on Foreign Relations

People's Liberation Army Air Force

Taiwan

United States

Beijing

Exclusive economic zone

Japan

China Will Launch War This Decade, Trump Nominee Says

Newsweek•Jan 16, 2025

What Will China Do With Its Newfound Military Power?

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%