Question

How many US states will have a kindergarten measles vaccination rate below 90% for the 2024-2025 school year?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction14.1 (13.1 - 15.3)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30

...

0.1%

13.08

14.14

15.33

0.1%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 13, 2024

Closed:

Sep 1, 2024

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 1, 2025

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Vaccine bills stack up in statehouses across the US

Associated Press•Jan 27, 2025

Anti-vaccine bills pop up across the US ahead of RFK Jr’s confirmation hearing

Independent•Jan 27, 2025

RFK Jr. has raised doubts about vaccines, but data show how many lives they've saved

CBS•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the national kindergarten measles vaccination rate in the US for the 2029-2030 school year?

91.1

What will be the national kindergarten measles vaccination rate in the US for the 2028-2029 school year?

91.7

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

324

Comments

? comments