Question

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction37%

Make a Prediction

community: 37.1%

median 37.1%mean 45.0%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

Map Shows Strategic Drills of World's Nuclear Powers

Newsweek•Oct 2, 2024

What reports got wrong about China’s ‘sunken nuclear submarine’

Defense One•Oct 3, 2024

Hard Nuclear Weapons Choices Await Harris or Trump as President

Scientific American•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

10%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Make a Prediction

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Comments

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?