US-China war before 2035?

conditional

condition

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

19 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

11%

no comments0

Make a Prediction

US is a NATO Member until 2029?	US-China war before 2035?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 6.1%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 20, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Atlantic Treaty

NATO Ally Warns of Russia Launching 'Large-Scale' War in Europe

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Elon Musk Goes After NATO

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

NATO is in disarray after the US announces that its security priorities lie elsewhere

Associated Press•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Chinese GDP Overtakes US Before 2030? → US-China war before 2035?

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035? → US-China war before 2035?

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 20, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Atlantic Treaty

NATO Ally Warns of Russia Launching 'Large-Scale' War in Europe

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Elon Musk Goes After NATO

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

NATO is in disarray after the US announces that its security priorities lie elsewhere

Associated Press•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch