Question

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction9.4% (5% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 9.4%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States Indo-Pacific Command

RIM-174 Standard ERAM

Manila

Tony Blinken

China has 600 nukes already, and it wants to beat US missile defenses, the Pentagon says

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

China says Philippine plan to deploy midrange missiles would be ‘extremely irresponsible’

Associated Press•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035? → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States Indo-Pacific Command

RIM-174 Standard ERAM

Manila

Tony Blinken

China has 600 nukes already, and it wants to beat US missile defenses, the Pentagon says

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

China says Philippine plan to deploy midrange missiles would be ‘extremely irresponsible’

Associated Press•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch