US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

conditional

condition

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

Resolved :Yes

11 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

Resolved :Annulled

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US TikTok ban or forced sale?	US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 1%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Republican Party (US)

Google Play

App Store (iOS)

Artificial intelligence arms race

Information technology

Trump victory may provide TikTok a lifeline to remain in the U.S.

NBC•Nov 14, 2024

Trump led the charge to ban TikTok. Now he says he’ll save it

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Xi-Biden meet: Tariffs to Taiwan, what ails US-China ties as Trump looms

Al Jazeera•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025?

0.6%

Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Republican Party (US)

Google Play

App Store (iOS)

Artificial intelligence arms race

Information technology

Trump victory may provide TikTok a lifeline to remain in the U.S.

NBC•Nov 14, 2024

Trump led the charge to ban TikTok. Now he says he’ll save it

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Xi-Biden meet: Tariffs to Taiwan, what ails US-China ties as Trump looms

Al Jazeera•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025?

0.6%