Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

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Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction88%

Make a Prediction

community: 88%

median 88.0%mean 80.1%

Authors:

srid

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Bryan Caplan Collection

International Monetary Fund

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

48%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

srid

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Bryan Caplan Collection

International Monetary Fund

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Business Insider•Oct 3, 2024

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Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

48%

MetaculusM

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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

Make a Prediction

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Comments

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?