Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

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Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction84.4% (80% - 91%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 84.4%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
srid
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Bryan Caplan Collection
Economy & Business
Bryan Caplan
International Monetary Fund
S&P 500 Index
World Bank

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