Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

3
1
Total Forecasters44
Community Prediction82.5% (75% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 82.5%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
srid
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Bryan Caplan Collection
Geopolitics
Bryan Caplan
NATO
Russia

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