Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the college enrollment rate will be greater than 26.6% in 2025?

no comments0

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction96% (90% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Authors:

pedroacosta

Opened:

Mar 21, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

The Bryan Caplan Collection

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Bryan Caplan

National Center for Education Statistics

America's 'demographic cliff' is finally here — and set to wreak havoc on colleges: report

Raw Story•Jan 21, 2025

Fewer Students Enrolling in Colleges Has Lowered the Price of Higher Education Significantly

PJ Media•Jan 21, 2025

A looming 'demographic cliff': Fewer college students and ultimately fewer graduates

NPR Online News•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?

12%

Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?

21.9%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?

75%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

pedroacosta

Opened:

Mar 21, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

The Bryan Caplan Collection

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Bryan Caplan

National Center for Education Statistics

America's 'demographic cliff' is finally here — and set to wreak havoc on colleges: report

Raw Story•Jan 21, 2025

Fewer Students Enrolling in Colleges Has Lowered the Price of Higher Education Significantly

PJ Media•Jan 21, 2025

A looming 'demographic cliff': Fewer college students and ultimately fewer graduates

NPR Online News•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?

12%

Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?

21.9%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?

75%