Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

4
27
Total Forecasters49
Community Prediction86.4% (80% - 93%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 86.4%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
pedroacosta
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Bryan Caplan Collection
Geopolitics
List of sovereign states and dependent territories in Europe
Bryan Caplan

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