M

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Go here to learn more!

Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

Total Forecasters49
Community Prediction86%

Make a Prediction

community: 86.4%
median 86.4%mean 82.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%


Comments

? comments