Question

What will be the largest GDPR fine before 2031, measured in billions of Euros?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction2.99 (1.32 - 10.3)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

<1.2

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>20

...

22.2%

1.322

2.989

10.28

10.6%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RuslanBes

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Law

Economy & Business

European Central Bank

GDPR fines and notices

European Union

European Economic Area

General Data Protection Regulation

Controversial EU ad campaign on X broke bloc’s own privacy rules

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Potential payouts for up to 300,000 Australian Facebook users in Cambridge Analytica settlement

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Meta to set up $50M privacy payment scheme to settle Australian proceeding

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

10%

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RuslanBes

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Law

Economy & Business

European Central Bank

GDPR fines and notices

European Union

European Economic Area

General Data Protection Regulation

Controversial EU ad campaign on X broke bloc’s own privacy rules

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Potential payouts for up to 300,000 Australian Facebook users in Cambridge Analytica settlement

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Meta to set up $50M privacy payment scheme to settle Australian proceeding

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

10%

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

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MetaculusM

What will be the largest GDPR fine before 2031, measured in billions of Euros?

Make a Prediction

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Comments

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?