Question

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction2025-09-07 (2025-03-03 - 2026-11-06)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<2024-03-26

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01-01

...

3.1%

2025-03-03 04:47

2025-09-07 05:33

2026-11-06 03:44

10.6%

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Authors:

standupre

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Bag-of-words model in computer vision

Pediatrics

Database

Computer vision

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On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

2025-07-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

standupre

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Bag-of-words model in computer vision

Pediatrics

Database

Computer vision

AI Will Evolve Into an Organizational Strategy for All

Wired•Dec 16, 2024

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

2025-07-27

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

Comments

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?