Question

Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?

Resolved :No17%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction17% (15% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

71.1

Community Peer Score

3.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Social Sciences

Campaign to Stop Killer Robots

Lethal autonomous weapon

Military science

Robotics

Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons

Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

Current and former OpenAI employees warn of AI's 'serious risks' and lack of oversight

CNBC•Dec 17, 2024

House AI task force says 'unreasonable' to expect immediate congressional action on AI in 250-page report

FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

Israel's Use of AI in Gaza May Be Setting a New Warfare Norm

Time•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

52.4%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Social Sciences

Campaign to Stop Killer Robots

Lethal autonomous weapon

Military science

Robotics

Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons

Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

Current and former OpenAI employees warn of AI's 'serious risks' and lack of oversight

CNBC•Dec 17, 2024

House AI task force says 'unreasonable' to expect immediate congressional action on AI in 250-page report

FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

Israel's Use of AI in Gaza May Be Setting a New Warfare Norm

Time•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

52.4%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?

Make a Prediction

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Comments

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?