Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?

3
30
27 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 27

Make a Prediction

CandidateMe
ResolvedRuben Gallego (D)
83.7%
Kari Lake (R)
16%
Other Republican Nominee
0.1%
Other Democratic Nominee
0.1%
Other
0.1%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Ruben Gallego (D)

Community Baseline Score
81.8
Community Peer Score
16.4
Learn more about scores here.
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:

Comments

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