Question

Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters7

Community Prediction31.7 (24 - 39.4)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

24.04

31.73

39.4

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Mar 28, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Information security

Deepfake

Will states lead the way on AI regulation?

TechCrunch•Jan 26, 2025

Texas’s Left Turn On AI Regulation

Forbes•Jan 26, 2025

Teens on social media: Red, blue and purple states are all passing laws to restrict and protect adolescents

The Conversation•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

73%

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

87.5%

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

57%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Mar 28, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Information security

Deepfake

Will states lead the way on AI regulation?

TechCrunch•Jan 26, 2025

Texas’s Left Turn On AI Regulation

Forbes•Jan 26, 2025

Teens on social media: Red, blue and purple states are all passing laws to restrict and protect adolescents

The Conversation•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

73%

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

87.5%

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

57%