Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?

Resolved :Yes99%
6
8
Total Forecasters56
Community Prediction99% (98% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
91.9
Community Peer Score
5.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup
Environment & Climate
2024 Leaderboard
Cherry blossom
Tokyo

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