Question
What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 57
Make a Prediction
| Trial outcome | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
ResolvedTrump found guilty of at least one felony | 95% | |||
Trump found guilty of ONLY misdemeanour(s) | 1% | |||
Mixed: partial acquittal, no convictions | 1% | |||
Hung jury, no verdicts rendered (mistrial) | 1% | |||
Trump acquitted of all charges | 1% | |||
Other (all charges dropped, other mistrials) | 1% | |||
Total: ?
(? remaining)Which of these actually happened?Trump found guilty of at least one felony
Community Baseline Score
61.5
Community Peer Score
24.6
Authors:
Opened:Apr 2, 2024
Closes:Jun 14, 2024
Resolves:Jun 14, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 5, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
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If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?
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Comments
45 comments
Authors:
Opened:Apr 2, 2024
Closes:Jun 14, 2024
Resolves:Jun 14, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 5, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)
01 Jan 2026
Closes Dec 31, 2025
When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case)
01 Jan 2026
Closes Jan 1, 2026
If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?
20 Sep 2029
Closes Jan 1, 2030
NMorrison
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