📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?

7
45
57 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 57

Make a Prediction

Trial outcomeMe
ResolvedTrump found guilty of at least one felony
95%
Trump found guilty of ONLY misdemeanour(s)
1%
Mixed: partial acquittal, no convictions
1%
Hung jury, no verdicts rendered (mistrial)
1%
Trump acquitted of all charges
1%
Other (all charges dropped, other mistrials)
1%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Trump found guilty of at least one felony

Community Baseline Score
61.5
Community Peer Score
24.6
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Law
Politics
2024 Leaderboard
Lesser included offense
Judgment notwithstanding verdict
Donald Trump
New York (state)

Comments

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