Question

Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?

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Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction99% (98% - 99.9%)

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50%

community: 99%

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ADQ

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Scheduled resolution:

The Electoral College votes to confirm results for the 2024 presidential election today. Here's what to know.

CBS•Dec 17, 2024

Electoral College: How it’s changed this year

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

US electors to certify Trump’s win in process targeted by fake electors in 2020

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

0.5%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

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Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

The Electoral College votes to confirm results for the 2024 presidential election today. Here's what to know.

CBS•Dec 17, 2024

Electoral College: How it’s changed this year

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

US electors to certify Trump’s win in process targeted by fake electors in 2020

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

0.5%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?

Make a Prediction

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Comments

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?