Question

Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved :Yes99%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction99% (98% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

98.0

Community Peer Score

2.1

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Apr 10, 2024

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 18, 2024

First 2026 Senate Forecast Spells More Bad News For Dems

Daily Wire•Feb 12, 2025

Top political handicapper reveals what Dems' chances are at winning back the Senate in 2026

FOX News•Feb 12, 2025

Trump is named Time's Person of the Year for 2024

CBS•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

46%

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

Comments

? comments