US-China war before 2035?

conditional

condition

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?

7 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

11%

US-China war before 2035?

no comments0

Make a Prediction

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?	US-China war before 2035?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 11.3%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

China Will Have Four Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers by 2035

•Nov 11, 2024

China building prototype nuclear reactor to power next generation aircraft carrier, AP reports

CBS•Nov 12, 2024

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

China Will Have Four Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers by 2035

•Nov 11, 2024

China building prototype nuclear reactor to power next generation aircraft carrier, AP reports

CBS•Nov 12, 2024

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch