US-China war before 2035?

conditional

condition

US SLCM 2030

Resolved :Yes

6 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

10%

US-China war before 2035?

Resolved :Annulled

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US SLCM 2030	US-China war before 2035?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 10%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China–US trade war

South China Sea

China

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

Congressional Research Service

Taiwan Strait

United States

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China–US trade war

South China Sea

China

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

Congressional Research Service

Taiwan Strait

United States

Weak shipbuilding could be the US Navy's Achilles' heel in a war with China

Business Insider•Nov 17, 2024

US, Japan, and Australia Agree To Increase Trilateral Exercises

AntiWar•Nov 18, 2024

Could Biden's Ukraine Missile Move Trigger World War III? Experts' Verdicts

Newsweek•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch