M

conditional
condition

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

6 forecasters
if yes
if no

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

45%
45%

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

30%
30%
1
1

Make a Prediction

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

50%
community: 45%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Arms Control Association
People's Liberation Army
China
US Department of Defense
Vietnam
Financial Times
Japan
World War II
Cuba
Federation of American Scientists

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