US-China war before 2035?

conditional

condition

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

1 comment1

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US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?	US-China war before 2035?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 4%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan wants to buy F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missiles to show Trump it's serious: report

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report

FOX News•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan wants to buy F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missiles to show Trump it's serious: report

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report