Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

conditional

condition

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

10 forecasters

if yes

if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

25%

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

30%

3 comments3

Make a Prediction

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?	Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 25%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

Q&A: 'Vast, Deep Impact' if China Invades Taiwan, Says Author Kerry Brown

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Taiwan president says ‘impossible’ for mainland China to be the motherland

Independent•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030) → Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

Q&A: 'Vast, Deep Impact' if China Invades Taiwan, Says Author Kerry Brown

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Taiwan president says ‘impossible’ for mainland China to be the motherland

Independent•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch