Question

What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?

Resolved :4747.3

27 comments27

Total Forecasters154

Community Prediction47.3 (46.3 - 49)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>65

...

0.3%

46.33

47.31

49.01

2.0%

What was the final result?47

Community Baseline Score

-11.3

Community Peer Score

62.3

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Authors:

RyanBeck

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Ministry of National Defense (Republic of China)

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•Dec 13, 2024

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On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

116

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty

China

Ministry of National Defense (Republic of China)

Taiwan

Democratic Progressive Party

Lai Ching-te

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military activity near Taiwan intensifies, 24 PLA aircraft detected

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

116

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What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?

Make a Prediction

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Comments

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?