🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?

Resolved :Yes62%
5
1
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction62% (60% - 63%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 62%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
27.6
Community Peer Score
-2.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeckTransparent_Replications
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Transparent Replications
Social Sciences
2024 Leaderboard
Economics
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Nature (journal)
Psychology
Science

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