🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Resolved :No0.7%
17
70
Total Forecasters114
Community Prediction0.7% (0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
87.7
Community Peer Score
13.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Health & Pandemics
2024 Leaderboard
Virology
United Kingdom
Vietnam
Colorado
Medicine
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1
Texas
Hong Kong

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