Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

63 comments63

Total Forecasters99

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 17.2%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

20%

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

2.03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

20%

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

2.03

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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Comments

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?