🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs?

3
13
15 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 15

Make a Prediction

MonthMe
ResolvedSeptember 2024
98.5%
April 2024
0.1%
May 2024
0.1%
June 2024
0.1%
July 2024
0.1%
August 2024
0.1%
After September 2024
1%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?September 2024

Community Baseline Score
-1.3
Community Peer Score
24.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:

Comments

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