🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?

5
12
24 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 24

Make a Prediction

Major HurricanesMe
ResolvedFive
98%
Three or fewer
0.1%
Four
0.1%
Six
1.6%
Seven
0.1%
Eight or more
0.1%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Five

Community Baseline Score
13.0
Community Peer Score
35.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
lbiii
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Environment & Climate
2024 Leaderboard
Meteorology
Atlantic hurricane season
El Niño
Environmental science
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
National Hurricane Center
Natural disaster
Oceanography
Colorado State University

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