MetaculusM

Question

Will 2016 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?

Resolved :No75%

5

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction75% (60% - 79%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-110.6

Community Peer Score

27.9

Authors:

Opened:

May 4, 2016

Closes:

Jul 1, 2016

Resolves:

Sep 16, 2016

Environment & Climate

2016 Leaderboard

Arctic sea ice decline

What climate records were broken in 2024?

Al Jazeera•Jan 28, 2025

Cold War 2.0? Russia, China And The U.S. Clash Over Arctic Resources

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

World's biggest iceberg could be on collision course with Antarctic penguin island: "Game of Thrones-esque"

CBS•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

May 4, 2016

Closes:

Jul 1, 2016

Resolves:

Sep 16, 2016

Environment & Climate

2016 Leaderboard

Arctic sea ice decline

What climate records were broken in 2024?

Al Jazeera•Jan 28, 2025

Cold War 2.0? Russia, China And The U.S. Clash Over Arctic Resources

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

World's biggest iceberg could be on collision course with Antarctic penguin island: "Game of Thrones-esque"

CBS•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch