Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will 2016 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?

Resolved :No75%
5
12
Total Forecasters48
Community Prediction75% (60% - 79%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 75%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
-110.6
Community Peer Score
27.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
John_Baez
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Environment & Climate
2016 Leaderboard
Arctic sea ice decline
Global warming

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