Group

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Forecast Timeline

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

OpenAI / GPT-5

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus	20%

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra	18%

OpenAI / GPT-5	9%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Anthropic

Computer science

Natural language processing

Online learning

Gemini 2

DeepMind

Artificial general intelligence

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

32%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Anthropic

Computer science

Natural language processing

Online learning

Gemini 2

DeepMind

Artificial general intelligence

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Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

32%

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Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

Comments

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?