Question

Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

May 9, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Bright Line Watch

Artificial Intelligence

Great Recession in the US

United States

AI takeover

Great Recession

Bureau of Labor Statistics

How 2025 Will Change the Future of Work

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Analysis: How will inflation, interest rates and the U.S. consumer fare in 2025?

PBS NewsHour•Jan 27, 2025

Should workers worry about AI replacing jobs? Ask HR

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?

0.9%

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

47.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

May 9, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Bright Line Watch

Artificial Intelligence

Great Recession in the US

United States

AI takeover

Great Recession

Bureau of Labor Statistics

How 2025 Will Change the Future of Work

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Analysis: How will inflation, interest rates and the U.S. consumer fare in 2025?

PBS NewsHour•Jan 27, 2025

Should workers worry about AI replacing jobs? Ask HR

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?

0.9%

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

47.6