Question

Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?

Resolved :No

21 comments21

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

71.8

Community Peer Score

10.4

median 0.1%mean 1.4%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Aerospace engineering

Kappa 77 KP 2U-SOVA

Epidemiology

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

2024-12-11

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

47%

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

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