Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

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Question

Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.4%)

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50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
71.8
Community Peer Score
10.4
Learn more about scores here.
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