Question

Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?

Resolved :No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

82.9

Community Peer Score

8.4

median 1.0%mean 2.3%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

China Fires Water Cannon at US Ally Near Disputed Territory

Newsweek•Oct 8, 2024

US and Allies Stage Military Drills on 'China's Doorstep'

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2024

What’s behind escalating China-Philippines tensions in the South China Sea?

Al Jazeera•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%