Question

Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 100,000 or more inhabitants before 2050?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction60% (55% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Authors:

benj83

Opened:

Sep 23, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Technology

Toyota is building a $10 billion smart city at the base of Mount Fuji, and will soon move in its first residents

Business Insider•Jan 24, 2025

World's first 'city of the future' welcomes first residents who'll live there rent-free... but there's a catch

Daily Mail•Jan 24, 2025

Dubai’s ceaseless boom is putting strains on its residents

Associated Press•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?

50%

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

15%

Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?

55%

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