Group

What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024?

18 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Herds Affected

States

Make a Prediction

Domain	resolution
Herds Affected	174
States	13

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

167.9

176.8

188.6

0.1%

What was the final result?174

Community Baseline Score

88.5

Community Peer Score

11.7

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

Infectious disease

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Food and Drug Administration

US Department of Agriculture

Avian flu infects 2 more California dairy workers as CDC confirms Wisconsin case

•Dec 31, 2024

More than 70 percent of California’s dairy cow herds are infected with bird flu. Here’s what to know

Independent•Dec 31, 2024

Avian influenza virus type A (H5N1) in U.S. dairy cattle

•Dec 31, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

25%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

55%

Comments

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

Infectious disease

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Food and Drug Administration

US Department of Agriculture

Avian flu infects 2 more California dairy workers as CDC confirms Wisconsin case

•Dec 31, 2024

More than 70 percent of California’s dairy cow herds are infected with bird flu. Here’s what to know

Independent•Dec 31, 2024

Avian influenza virus type A (H5N1) in U.S. dairy cattle

•Dec 31, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

25%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

55%