Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

Resolved :No10%
13
16
Total Forecasters122
Community Prediction10% (6% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
54.6
Community Peer Score
27.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Pandemic Series (2018)
Health & Pandemics
2016-2020 Leaderboard
Epidemiology
Infectious disease
Spanish flu
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1
Black Death
History
Human mortality from H5N1
United States
Medicine

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