🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

MetaculusM

Question

Which science fiction novel will win a Hugo Award in 2024?

2

4 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 4

Some Desperate Glory - Emily Tesh

Translation State - Ann Leckie

Adventures of Amina al-Sirafi - Chakraborty

The Saint of Bright Doors - Chandrasekera

Witch King - Martha Wells

Starter Villain - John Scalzi

Make a Prediction

Book		My Prediction		Me
ResolvedSome Desperate Glory - Emily Tesh	10.2%

Starter Villain - John Scalzi	14.4%

The Saint of Bright Doors - Chandrasekera	15.8%

Witch King - Martha Wells	15.3%

Adventures of Amina al-Sirafi - Chakraborty	22.1%

Translation State - Ann Leckie	22.2%

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Some Desperate Glory - Emily Tesh

Community Baseline Score

-16.0

Community Peer Score

4.9

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

2024 Leaderboard

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

2024 Leaderboard