Question

Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?

40 comments40

182 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 182

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris (& Others)

Joe Biden

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
ResolvedDonald Trump	23.48%

Kamala Harris (& Others)	76.32%

Joe Biden	0.1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.1%

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Donald Trump

Community Baseline Score

17.7

Community Peer Score

26.8

Authors:

famousne Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Politics

Social Sciences

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?

99.9%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

35%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

famousne Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Politics

Social Sciences

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Election 2024: Neither "Landslide" Nor "Mandate"

OpEdNews•Nov 11, 2024

Here are the Democrats who may eventually run for president in 2028

FOX News•Nov 11, 2024

Here Are 21 People Who Received Actual Write-In Votes For President In 2024

Buzzfeed•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?

99.9%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

35%