🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?

Resolved :2020.5
1
31
Total Forecasters52
Community Prediction20.5 (19.9 - 21.5)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<13
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>33
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
19.91
20.49
21.55
0.1%

What was the final result?20

Community Baseline Score
70.5
Community Peer Score
38.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Politics
2024 Leaderboard
Conservative Party (UK)
Rishi Sunak
United Kingdom
Labour Party (UK)
The Economist

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