Group

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

7 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

1,000 bases

5,000 bases

Make a Prediction

Capability	resolution
5,000 bases	Annulled
Capability	25th	median	75th
5,000 bases	14.2 ...	71.4 ...	195 ...
1,000 bases	20.3 ...	107 ...	320 ...

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

22.87

40.44

111.3

0.3%

What was the final result?Annulled

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Biochemistry

Biotechnology

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Genetics

Synthetic biology

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Creating ‘Mirror Life’ Could Be Disastrous, Scientists Warn

Scientific American•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

2028-10-06

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

189k

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

2044-10-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Biochemistry

Biotechnology

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Genetics

Synthetic biology

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Creating ‘Mirror Life’ Could Be Disastrous, Scientists Warn

Scientific American•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

2028-10-06

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

189k

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

2044-10-27

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

Comments

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?