Question

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction83%

Make a Prediction

community: 83%

median 83.0%mean 68.5%

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

22%

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

47%

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

22%

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

47%

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Comments

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?