Question

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

median 12.0%mean 25.2%

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

Will Donald Trump successfully end all new U.S. offshore wind energy projects by executive order before April 21, 2025?

40%

Will chemicals produced from biomass achieve price parity with these three petrochemical equivalents before 2050?

35%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Surprise bids revive hope for offshore wind in Gulf of Mexico after feds cancel lease sale

Associated Press•Nov 15, 2024

Alaska political leaders hope to see Trump undo restrictions on oil drilling

Independent•Nov 16, 2024

Alaska political leaders hope to see Trump undo restrictions on oil drilling

Associated Press•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

Will Donald Trump successfully end all new U.S. offshore wind energy projects by executive order before April 21, 2025?

40%

Will chemicals produced from biomass achieve price parity with these three petrochemical equivalents before 2050?

35%