Question

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

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Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction58.5% (20.9% - 69%)

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50%

community: 58.5%

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Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Communist Party of China

People's Liberation Army Navy

Shang-class submarine

Pentagon Releases Report on Chinese Aircraft Carrier Fleet

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Communist Party of China

People's Liberation Army Navy

Shang-class submarine

Pentagon Releases Report on Chinese Aircraft Carrier Fleet

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

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Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Comments

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?