Question

Will the World Health Organization report a new case of polio in the month of June 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

16 comments16

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction31%

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50%

community: 31%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 31.0%mean 37.2%

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lbiii

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🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

World Health Organization

Polio

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?

2032-07-07

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

World Health Organization

Polio

WHO says mpox cases in Congo’s epicenter where the new variant was detected may be ‘plateauing’

Associated Press•Nov 11, 2024

Mpox Cases Plateau in Congo's Epicenter But Rise in Other Countries

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

WHO warns of measles resurgence as cases exceed 10 million in 2023

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?

2032-07-07