Question

Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters109

Community Prediction5% (3% - 7%)

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50%

community: 5%

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Earth science

Volcanic Explosivity Index

Christopher G. Newhall

Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano shows more signs of elevated unrest

New York Post•Dec 20, 2024

Hawaii's Kilauea volcano erupts with lava gushing to the surface

Daily Mail•Dec 23, 2024

Kilauea, Popocatepetl, Etna, and More: The Year in Volcanic Activity

Atlantic•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

46.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Earth science

Volcanic Explosivity Index

Christopher G. Newhall

Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano shows more signs of elevated unrest

New York Post•Dec 20, 2024

Hawaii's Kilauea volcano erupts with lava gushing to the surface

Daily Mail•Dec 23, 2024

Kilauea, Popocatepetl, Etna, and More: The Year in Volcanic Activity

Atlantic•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

46.5%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

Comments

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?