Question

How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?

Resolved :Ambiguous283k

27 comments27

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction283k (166k - 507k)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3M

...

165.7k

283.4k

507.2k

2.7%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Yemen

United Nations

Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemen

Yemeni Civil War (2015–present)

Famine in Yemen (2016–present)

Norwegian Refugee Council

Save the Children

UNICEF

Three WFP Workers Killed in Sudan Air Attack as Agency Warns 1.7 Million People Facing Famine

Democracy Now•Dec 20, 2024

Yemen facing ‘highest burden’ of global cholera outbreak, WHO warns

Al Jazeera•Dec 24, 2024

Famine spreading in war-torn Sudan, UN-backed report says

Al Jazeera•Dec 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%

Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?

36.8%

Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Yemen

United Nations

Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemen

Yemeni Civil War (2015–present)

Famine in Yemen (2016–present)

Norwegian Refugee Council

Save the Children

UNICEF

Three WFP Workers Killed in Sudan Air Attack as Agency Warns 1.7 Million People Facing Famine

Democracy Now•Dec 20, 2024

Yemen facing ‘highest burden’ of global cholera outbreak, WHO warns

Al Jazeera•Dec 24, 2024

Famine spreading in war-torn Sudan, UN-backed report says

Al Jazeera•Dec 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%

Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?

36.8%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?

Make a Prediction

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?

Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?

Comments

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?

Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?

Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?

Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?