AGI/ASI coming soon

Trends of de-escalation since WWII due to globalisation, culture shift, and nuclear deterrence

China-US conflict over Taiwan will happen not happen on the ground

The political terror scale, political insecurity, and neighboring country relations have reached their worst score since the inception of the Global Peace Index, suggesting increased potential for conflict escalation.

All five geographical regions defined by SIPRI saw rises in military spending for the first time since 2009, with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania recording particularly large increases.

The United States has activated contingency plans to save Taiwan, which includes the use of tactical nuclear weapons, indicating a potential for nuclear escalation in the region.

Base rate for population-equivalent of 10M casualties is high

Russia's military expenditure increased by almost 30% in 2023, with the Kremlin spending roughly 7.5% of its GDP on the military.

The PRC's support for Russia's defense industrial base has been identified by NATO as increasing the threat to Euro-Atlantic security, potentially escalating tensions that could lead to a broader conflict.