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How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election?
15
52 comments
52
19 forecasters
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Rassemblement National
Ecologistes
Renaissance
La France Insoumise
Parti Socialiste
Parti Communiste
6 others
Make a Prediction
Party
resolution
Renaissance
99
Parti Communiste
17
Ecologistes
38
Parti Socialiste
66
Rassemblement National
126
La France Insoumise
72
Les Républicains
47
Démocrates (Modem and independents)
36
Libertés, Indépendants, OutreMer, Territoires
21
Horizons
31
Non affiliated
8
Other parties
16
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>300
75.6
97.26
119.9
0.2%
What was the final result?
99
Community Baseline Score
43.0
Community Peer Score
35.9
Additional Scores
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Background Info
Authors:
exmateriae
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2024 Leaderboard
New Horizons
National Assembly (France)
Minor party
Jacques Chirac
Emmanuel Macron
Critical Horizons
Renaissance
La France Insoumise
The Republicans (France)
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Authors:
exmateriae
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2024 Leaderboard
New Horizons
National Assembly (France)
Minor party
Jacques Chirac
Emmanuel Macron
Critical Horizons
Renaissance
La France Insoumise
The Republicans (France)
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
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News Match
After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate
•
Dec 20, 2024
Emmanuel Macron Tries, Fails, and Tries the Same Thing Again
Jacobin
•
Dec 15, 2024
Did democracy survive the 2024 global election marathon?
Guardian
•
Dec 23, 2024
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Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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